← Store Championships @ Retro Exchange
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Store Championships @ Retro Exchange
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Tonoris | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seer's Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Firetongue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |